The book discusses “Decision making” as a subject.
Annie Duke, the author, has been a poker world champion 🏆🏆. Since every decision in poker has an immediate monetary result. So, the game gives a great perspective on “decision making”. That is aside from losing or winning millions ( in Annie’s case ).
Resulting
The book calls out the tight coupling we tend to create between results and our decisions. And by the way – I loved this concept 💕💗💘
Since the result was good, the decision was good too. However, a good result does NOT automatically imply a good decision. We might’ve been lucky this time.
This time the bad result can imply a bad decision. Same as earlier, a bad result does NOT automatically imply a bad decision. We might’ve been unlucky this time.
The reason I correlated with the concept was that – I see it in action at software companies.
However, the results do NOT mean that overtime hours was a good idea. (It is a bad one ). Therefore, good code should not be tied to overtime work. Eventually, the team will burn out. And will start producing poor code.
Similarly
Then, the result does NOT mean that the decision to give time was a bad idea.
Essentially – decisions and results are NOT tightly coupled.
Unknown
The future is unknown. And uncertainty plays a lot of mischief in our lives.
We attempt to map our decisions to an unknown future, to the best of our abilities. However, our weaknesses keep us from doing well. These are – blindspots, motivated reasoning, outcome bias, and sometimes luck.
Due to these reasons, Annie explains, not only do we think poorly about the future. But also analyze the past poorly.
Regardless of how hard we try, sometimes we will fail. This uncertainty is a fact. The book brings in a perspective that such failure ought to be acceptable.
One might have great cards at the poker table. But, there is always a chance that the other person might get lucky. Let’s lick our wounds and move on !
The nature of the future is unknown. And accepting it AS-IS ( unknown ) is an important factor in making decisions.
What I loved
Unlike many other books, that only talk about improving decision-making. ‘Thinking in Bets’ discusses practical strategies towards making better decisions …
Most things in life as not absolutes. And our vocabulary should reflect this reality – helps make better decisions.
Making the physical habit of correcting verbal mistakes, is a great way to realize them. ( and then correct them too )
The book encourages people to try and bet money on their beliefs. How much money you will bet on the fact that you are good at your job ? 500$, 10,000$, a million ?
The fear of losing so much money encourages us to be more open to the other person’s viewpoint.
I loved this idea !
The next time someone is promoted at your office .. check whether
The same way .. when we get promoted, then instead of gloating, let us figure out what more could’ve been done.
Other people’s promotion is NOT always luck. There are skills involved.
Our promotion is NOT always skill. There is luck involved.
If I were to ask you whether to study Android .. what would you say ? That Android is the hip technology and can help me get to a better career ?
What if I told you that I applied for 50 jobs, but haven’t heard back ?
Maybe the peak career time for Android has passed. This is the reason we should NOT share the results when asking for opinions.
I could relate to this topic with ‘code review’ groups at IT organizations. Each one helping the other improve their code.
Wrap up
The book did become verbose at times. Repeating the ideas of uncertainty and the need for better decisions.
Also – Annie is a poker player and not a writer. Kinda shows. The writing was not magnetic. The subject didn’t help either.
The book ‘Power of Habit’ comes to mind. Charles Duhigg made the boring subject of Habits into an interesting book. The sequence of anecdotes, revelations, and storytelling was both educating and entertaining.
All in all – I am glad I read this book.
While it did NOT give me the need to make better decisions. It did give me ‘practical steps’ to help me get to better decisions. And NOT lament failures as simply a lack of my skill.
Life is a long poker game. Better decisions will help us win most games, but despite our best skills … we will lose. And sometimes, it’s just back luck !
That is Thinking in Bets.
